Hold onto your hats, because the New South Wales political landscape is about to get a whole lot more turbulent. Kellie Sloane, a rising star in the NSW Liberals, is poised to take the reins from Mark Speakman as party leader, and that’s bound to complicate life for Premier Chris Minns. But here’s where it gets really interesting: the once-harmonious NSW Coalition is now on the brink of chaos, and it’s not just about leadership changes.
Compared to their federal counterparts, the NSW Coalition has historically been a more united conservative force. But those days seem to be over. Over the next two weeks, the NSW Liberals may oust Speakman and face the daunting challenge of reconciling their climate policies with their junior partner, the Nationals. And this is the part most people miss: there’s a very real risk that this internal strife could fracture the state opposition entirely.
The drama kicks off with the Nationals’ party room debate on net zero emissions this Monday and Tuesday. Here’s the controversial bit: it’s almost certain the Nationals will either abandon or severely weaken their commitment to net zero, rendering it virtually meaningless. Why? Because their grassroots members voted in June to ditch the 2050 net zero target, and leader Dugald Saunders is under fire from backbenchers whose regional electorates are furious about wind farms, solar projects, and transmission lines they see as being imposed to benefit city dwellers.
Adding fuel to the fire are conservative groups like Advance, which openly vowed six months ago to scrap net zero and revert to coal-fired energy. Until recently, NSW had enjoyed bipartisan support for its 2020 energy transition roadmap, a legacy of the previous Coalition government. But with the federal Coalition imploding over climate policy and global shifts like Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, that roadmap is now in serious jeopardy.
Here’s where it gets even more contentious: Will the moderate Saunders, clinging to leadership by a thread, survive? Or will he be replaced by the more hardline Paul Toole? And if Saunders stays, what concessions will he make to keep his position? Meanwhile, the NSW Liberals—unlike their federal colleagues, who seem to embrace chaos—are reluctantly inching toward a leadership change. Speakman, though well-liked, is seen as lacking the punch needed to challenge Minns effectively.
A new Resolve poll due this week is expected to show another dip in the Coalition’s primary vote, no surprise given the federal party’s self-inflicted damage. In July, the NSW Coalition plummeted to 32%—six points behind Labor—a gap that could cost them up to 10 seats. That’s enough to make MPs in marginal seats sweat and those in safer seats dread another term in opposition.
But here’s the real question: Can Kellie Sloane, a first-term MP and former journalist, step up to the plate? Sloane is a skilled communicator who’s already gotten under Minns’ skin, but she’s a political novice with less than three years in parliament and no ministerial experience. Her fresh face could be an asset, but her lack of political battle scars might leave her vulnerable to the same fate as Jodi McKay, the former Labor leader who was chewed up by factional infighting and a formidable premier, Gladys Berejiklian.
The NSW Liberals’ internal battles aren’t just personal—they’re structural. Factional warfare over preselections and ideology has crippled their ability to function as an effective opposition. And then there’s the Nationals, whose likely abandonment of net zero will force the Liberals into an even more precarious dance. Speakman has managed to avoid showdowns with the Nationals on issues like feral horses and koala conservation, but aligning on climate and energy policy? That’s a whole different ballgame.
Here’s the million-dollar question: How can the urban Liberals avoid a teal wave in areas like the north shore when voters are increasingly prioritizing climate action? And if the Nationals appear to be calling the shots, will the Liberals risk losing even more ground? Rumors are swirling in Macquarie Street about a potential split from the Nationals, but while that might offer short-term relief, it could make long-term policy alignment—and winning back voters—even harder.
Whether it’s Speakman or, more likely, Sloane at the helm, navigating this minefield won’t be easy. For Sloane, the risk is that her inexperience could lead to missteps that leave her damaged and dispensable. So, what do you think? Can Sloane rise to the challenge, or is she destined to be another casualty of NSW’s political turmoil? Let us know in the comments!
